Small Markets, Slim Chances

Matthew Patston: 

Many baseball fans, myself included, are excited to watch the steady flow of improbable teams who clawed their way in the MLB playoffs this year, after a very tight wild-card race. Mid-way through the division series, we are forced to take stock of our small-money darlings:

• Cleveland Indians: Eliminated
• Tampa Bay Rays: After two strong play in games, on the brink of elimination
• Oakland A’s: Salvaged a 1-1 split at their home park, on to Detroit
• Pittsburgh Pirates: Up on St. Louis, 2-1

And, even though the Braves are firmly in the mid-market category, their payroll seems microscopic compared to the lavish Los Angeles Dodgers, who appear to be controlling that series (don’t forget they have Clayton Kershaw for game 5, and he might be a superhero).
So, even assuming that the A’s and Pirates move on, which I don’t think they will, they would square off against the Red Sox and Dodgers, respectively- each featuring two of the most monstrous lineups, rotations, and payrolls in the MLB. Both big-market teams appear to be playing stronger as the season wears on, both teams are winning their games handily, and both teams have enough money to pick up another free-agent or two in the coming off season, just in case they don’t have a good enough team this year.
Teams like the Red Sox and Dodgers beg the question: are small market teams any better off than they were ten years ago, when the A’s moneyballed their way into the playoffs, the Twins perennially contended for the AL Central, and the Ivan Rodriguez-led Marlins knocked off the Yankees in the World Series?
A quick recipe for how small-market baseball currently works:

1 part: High-profile draft pick, i.e. David Price, Jed Lowrie, Manny Machado, Andrew McCutchen
2 parts: Aging veteran signing/trade, i.e. Coco Crisp, Justin Morneau,
1 part: stealing of underrated young player, i.e. Josh Reddick, most other Oakland A’s
1 Part: Latin signing, i.e. Yoenis Cespedes
2 parts: Homegrown pitching, i.e. Gerrit Cole, the entire Tampa Bay staff

Some of these techniques are borrowed from Billy Beane and the mid 2000’s A’s, who will always and forever be the original engineers of 21st century small-market success. Others stem from that world champion Marlins’ team, who mixed free-agents with young talent including, oh I don’t know, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Brad Penny, Derek Lee, etc., before selling them all, almost immediately after winning.
Despite this stable formula, since that 2003 season, we’ve seen the Red Sox win two world championships, along with the Cardinals and Giants, although I’m willing to cut the Cards a little bit of a break. The Yankees have won, the White Sox have won, and the Phillies have won, with all three of those teams doing so after a spending spree the previous offseason. In the few World Series that involved a small market team, the little guy has been characteristically trounced, like Colorado was in 2007 against Boston.
So, with all the perceived progress and equality in baseball, why aren’t small-market teams winning?
Well, the nucleus of a small-market team often revolves around young players, many of whom are seeing the postseason for the first time. This is a shaky foundation at best, and clutch-time usually favors a grizzled vet over a bright-eyed rookie (for example, Raul Ibanez’s ALCS heroics last year). You simply don’t know how a young player is going to react to the new environment. This statement bothers me a little, because there isn’t a statistic for how age effects reaction to pressure, but I think that history reveals a pattern.
For further evidence, consider Clayton Kershaw’s domination of the Braves in game one this year. Prior to that, he had given up 10 earned runs in 14.2 playoff innings. Experience, and perspective, matters.
Secondly, during the post-season, the dynamic of a pitching rotation drastically changes. Whereas during the regular season, it might be preferable to have five solid starters as opposed to one or two dominating ones, the playoffs can be won behind a smaller number of upper-echelon arms. This formula was brought into the modern age in 2001, when Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling shared the WSMVP, and was later seen with pitchers like C.C. Sabathia, Chris Carpenter, Matt Cain/Tim Lincecum, and take your pick of whichever Red Sox pitcher is leading the rotation -- this year it’s Jon Lester.
Being able to jam two Cy Young caliber starts into a series is the sort of thing that can give you an edge. The Oakland A’s, despite somehow beating Justin Verlander in game two, still have to face the possibility of seeing Max Scherzer and Verlander (possibly in relief) again in the division series, which seems just plain impossible to beat. Cy Young pitching matters in the playoffs.
Lastly, and perhaps the least quantifiable reason that dollars still equal championships, is the old Mo.
It’s pretty simple psychology, and something most athletes are familiar with, consciously or subconciously: the underdog rides the wave of momentum. Success builds upon success, the wave swells higher and higher, and then it crashes and recedes. It seldom stays high enough, for long enough, to wash gracefully into a World Series ring – the playoffs are simply too long, too grueling of a time. This is true especially when considering that most of the low-market teams get into the playoffs after a tight regular-season race, as was seen this year in both leagues. You can only stay hyped for so long- streaks seldom last forever against good competition.

For a case study, I turn again to the 2007 Colorado Rockies. They followed, almost step by step, the blueprint for small market success that we laid out above. After finishing the season on a 12-1 run, they forced a one-game playoff, which was predictably won in walk-off fashion. They then swept the NLDS, swept the NLCS, and waited, pleasantly reflecting on the 20-1 record they had compiled down the stretch, for the winner of the ALCS. This would would end up being the Boston Red Sox, who beat the Indians in a six game series, winning the last four.
The Sox never gave Colorado a chance to breathe. It was a very quick, very efficient, very painless four games, with little drama. In a matter of days, it was over. Rockies fans at Coors Field watched the Red Sox celebrate their second championship in four years. The wave crashed too early – the momentum was lost. It was lost just like it is being lost by the Rays, just like it was recently lost by the Indians, and just like it is apt to be lost by the Pirates. I leave the A’s out because, well, they’ve been damn good all year.
I realize that, in many ways, I ought to be happy that so many small-market teams are making the playoffs over teams like the Yankees, Giants, and Angels. But, as I’m sure anyone currently playing in October will tell you, it doesn’t mean anything without a ring.

Photos courtesy of:
nytimes.com 
Cleveland.com 
media.tri-cityherald.com